As long as the weather doesn't ruin a few games, which is possible this week, this looks like a good week for the passing games. As usual, RB looks like a disaster, so I was judicious with my picks. I try to be judicious with all my picks, actually. As usual, I whittle the field down to the players who jump out to me based on matchup and cost.
QUARTERBACKS
Derek Carr (LV, at LAC - $5400 on DK and $6900 on FanDuel) - He’s the second-best value on our board on DK and the seventh-best on FanDuel. I do worry about volume with Carr, who I liked last week but who underwhelmed with only 23 attempts. But his affordable salary is tough to pass up for this column, where I focus on finding the most bang for your buck. Matt Ryan did what he wanted against Denver last week putting up 284/3 with ease and that was without Calvin Ridley (Justin Herbert got them the week before for 275+ and 3 TDs). Carr didn’t crush this matchup last year, but he did complete 71% of his passes for 9.0 YPA with a 325 passing yard average in two games. Denver’s got some firepower these days to fight back, so if Carr’s attempts are up to 30-35, he should come through in this one.
Jared Goff (LAR, vs. Sea - $6500 on DK and $7400 on FanDuel) - He’s not a great value on either site (12th-best on DK, 6th-best on FanDuel), but I do love the matchup. Seattle has been more aggressive and is blitzing more while playing more man-to-man, and they are healthier on defense with S Jamal Adams back. But they are also still down their top two corners (Griffin, Dunbar), and they’re still giving up huge numbers to QBs (326/2.5 passing the last four weeks). Goff averaged a robust 8.6 YPA in this matchup last year with 344 passing per game. With two weeks to prepare coming out of the bye, the Rams should be able to exploit this defense, which likely entails more throwing for Goff against a solid Seattle run defense. I’m thinking 300+ yards and 2 TDs are likely for Goff this week.
Tom Brady (TB, at Car - $6300 on DK and $7800 on FanDuel) - He’s NOT a good value on either site, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a play worth trying out in some lineups. All I know is that I want to be invested when Brady has his bounce-back game, and the Panthers zone defense presents a good opportunity for the whole Bucs offense to settle down and matriculate the ball down the field. The only way Brady comes up small in this one is if their RBs combine for 150+ yards and 1-2 TDs. He managed just 217/1 passing against the Panthers in a 31-17 victory back in Week 2, but Brady back then didn’t have Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and, for all intents and purposes, Rob Gronkowski, who had only 1 target and 0 catches. Big difference this time around.
Carson Wentz (Phi, at NYG - $5900 on DK and $7500 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-6 value on both sites. He has not played well this year, but he’s mostly been good for fantasy, so I’ll include him in a tougher matchup because he’s coming off the bye and should get contributions from people who have rarely contributed this year like Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, and Alshon Jeffery. I also think they will help him more with Miles Sanders, who is 100% healthy. Daniel Jones and the Giants will likely make a game of this like they did in Week 7, so Wentz should easily return 3X value on DK, for example.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
Kyler Murray (Ari, vs. Buf - $8000 on DK and $8800 on FanDuel) - He’s the #1 QB value on our board on FanDuel and “only” the #6 value on DK. As I wrote a couple of weeks ago about Kyler “The Compiler:” just use him. The Bills defense has not been nearly as good this year and they’ve actually been giving up rushing production to QB lately, even though Russell Wilson had only 5 yards on the ground (but 1 rushing TD).
Josh Allen (Buf, at Ari - $7500 on DK and $8700 on FanDuel) - He’s only the eight-best value on DK, but he is the fourth-best on Fanduel. The Cardinals play man-to-man more than 1-2 other teams in the league, and Allen shreds man-to-man, a coverage that helps rushing QBs like him. Arizona is giving up 36 rushing yards a game the last four weeks, for example.
Deshaun Watson (Hou, - $6900 on DK and $8300 on FanDuel) - He’s the #4 QB value for us on DK and the #2 value on DK. In addition to playing brilliantly the last 3-4 games, Watson has a good matchup this week against a Browns defense that often plays without a free safety, making them vulnerable to big play. They also have only one good CB right now (Denzel Ward) and Watson’s Texans go four-deep in terms of quality wideouts. Watson will not have David Johnson, as well, which should boost his pass attempts.
NOTE: Before kickoff Sunday morning, making sure you check the site for our updated projections on Watson. If his projection is down below 22.0 (he’s at 22.7 on Friday), that’s due to bad weather and it would make Watson a less-than-ideal play.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
Daniel Jones (NYG, vs Phi - $5200 on DK and $6700 on FanDuel) - I mean, he’s the cheapest QB of the week on DK for God’s sake. He’s the #1 value on DK and the #2 value on FanDuel. I wouldn’t recommend watching the game if you use him, because it could be sloppy and ugly at times and there is some rain in the forecast, but Jones doesn’t have to do too much to come through at his price point. The Eagles play a lot of man to man, which might explain why they give up rushing production to QBs (to those who actually run). Jones, of course, should have rushed for 100+ yards with a TD in this matchup, but he got 4/92 rushing despite a stingy turf monster that tackled him on his long run. For whatever reason, the Giants seems to always move the ball against the Eagles, as Jones did in Week 7, and Evan Engram is starting to heat up, so I actually think Jones is a safe bet this week - as long as he doesn’t throw like 3 INTs, which is always possible.
Drew Lock (Den, at LV - $5500 on DK and $6700 on FanDuel) - He’s the fifth-best value on DK and the 12th-best on FanDuel, so he’s not a must-use. But if you’re looking for a cheap option with some upside, he still fits the bill. He’s very shaky for sure, but he’s also ruling in garbage time, and we should see another strong return on his minimal pricing and as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Raiders have allowed 285+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs to quarterbacks in four of the last five weeks. Lock has two career 300-yard passing games and those performances have come in his only two indoor games in Houston last year and in Atlanta last week.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
Nick Foles (Den, at LV - $5600 on DK and $7000 on FanDuel) - He’s not a good value on either site, and I’m only using him for a primetime slate, but while his OL and lack of running game are big problems, the Vikings don’t have a dominant pass rush, so if they can protect decently, Foles should come through with 250+ yards and 1-2 TDs. The Vikings won’t have an answer to Allen Robinson, and they are weak against TEs (most yards per target to TEs, per SIS) and slot receivers (giving up second-most FP out of the slot, per SIS), good news for Jimmy Graham and Anthony Miller.
RUNNING BACKS
Duke Johnson (Hou, at Cle - $5000 on DK and $5500 on FanDuel) - Let’s get the obvious/chalky guy out of the way first, since Dookie in a revenge game in bad weather with 15-20 opportunities locked in is hard to pass up. Dookie was a top-10 RB last week, and the Browns have allowed 95+ scrimmage yards to individual backs in three straight games. It would be a surprise to see Johnson flop with 15-20 touches at his price point.
James Conner (Pit, vs. Jac - $6900 on DK and $7600 on FanDuel) - He’s not an amazing value on either site, but at least top-12 on both. Last week was absolutely ridiculous, so I’m going right back to him because the opposite of last week should be in play this week. The Bengals defense is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (124.1) and are giving up a whopping 5.8 YPC to RBs the last four weeks. Conner in his only game against the Bengals last year actually had 8/83/1 in the passing game.
D’Andre Swift (Det, vs. Was - $5100 on DK and $6000 on FanDuel) - Despite the tougher matchup and their moronic coaching staff’s inclination to play an old man at RB over this young stud, Swift’s a top-6 value on both sites, per our projections. Adrian Peterson is getting worse as the season progresses, and Swift has out-snapped (48% to 29%) and out-carried (42 to 39) since coming out of their Week 5 bye. Swift’s matchup isn’t great, but I’m feeling a game in which they commit to him more in the running game, and all he needs to do to come through most likely is a TD.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
Aaron Jones (GB, vs. Jac - $7100 on DK and $8800 on FanDuel) - Obviously, the Packers should crush the Jags, and Jones looked great last week and had 10 days to rest of up for this one, which could be played in bad weather. The Jaguars are allowing 143.1 scrimmage yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns per game to RBs
Miles Sanders (Phi, at NYG - $64000 on DK and $7700 on FanDuel) - It’s not a great matchup, but he’s still a top-7 value on our board. He’s deemed himself 100% healthy coming out of the bye and in Week 7 Boston Scott and their deep backups totaled 20 touches and 126 yard with a TD. Sanders should get 20 opportunities because the Eagles need to get their running game going to take some pressure off Carson Wentz.
Mike Davis (Car, vs. TB - $6700 on DK and $5400 on FanDuel) - He’s the #1 RB value on FanDuel due to his poor pricing, so I will list him despite the tough matchup. Davis had 8/74 receiving off the bench back in Week 2 when Christian McCaffrey got hurt. The matchup is not great, but the Bucs have been run on a little lately, even Wayne Gallman ran on them two weeks ago, for example. Most of all, I expect the Panthers to be playing from behind, so I’m seeing another big catch game from Davis.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
JD McKissic (Was, at Det - $4900 on DK and $5300 on FanDuel) - We’re in it-is-what-it-is mode with McKissic, who entrenched into his large role in the passing game here. He is a top-5 value on both sites. McKissic saw a 36% target share last week with Alex Smith in the lineup, which was up from his 17% share for the season. He’s more reliable in pass protection, so he will be on the field plenty. The Lions are giving up 5/60/1 in the passing game only to RBs, so JDM looks good on paper here.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
None of note.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods (LAR, vs. Sea - $6900 and $6600 on DK and $7700 and $7200 on FanDuel) - They are not great values on either site, but the Seahawks are down their top two CBs and still give up major production to WRs, especially out of the slot (good news for Kupp). They give up the most fantasy points on the season to slot receivers, and the seventh-most to outside WRs, and Jared Goff should have to throw it 40+ times. Stefon Diggs posted 9/118 receiving in this matchup last week and Kupp posted 13/162/2 receiving against the Seahawks last season.
Terry McLaurin (Was, at Det - $6800 on DK and $7000 on FanDuel) - He’s a much better value on FanDuel, but I’m rolling with him more often than not in this soft matchup. Terry is rolling still despite playing with three different QBs in the month, as he posted his third straight game with 7 catches last week, something he’s now done five times in eight tries. Alex Smith connected with McLaurin on 5 of their 6 attempts for 87 yards. The Lions play a lot of man-to-man, which TM can destroy, so I’m not shying away from him.
DeVante Parker (Mia, vs. LAC - $5000 on DK and $6000 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-12 value on both sites, a little better of a value on FanDuel. Parker has seen just nine targets in his first two games with Tua, posting 7/67/1 receiving, but that could be close to his line in this one with Preston Williams out. Tua looked great last week, and we like this matchup for Parker. Per our guy Wes Huber, dating back to last year, when Parker has gone against a Cover 3 often used by the Chargers, his fantasy points per route has jumped by 21 percent, his YPRR by 47 percent, and his air yards per targets has increased by 10 percent.
Christian Kirk (Ari, vs. Buf - $5700 on DK and $6600 on FanDuel) - He’s not a great value on DK and is sixth-best on FanDuel. Kirk has lived in this column for a month now, so I’m going right back to him because he’s posted 20+ FP in three straight games and 10+ FP in five straight. Secondary perimeter WR David Moore posted 4/71/1 receiving in this matchup last week, and while Tre White won’t travel to cover DeAndre Hopkins, he will see a lot more of Hopkins than Kirk, which is reason alone to roll with him.
Jarvis Landry (Cle, vs. Hou - $5900 on DK and $6000 on FanDuel) - I know the weather may be bad in this one, but bad weather is less of a problem for the gritty Landry than most. Landry saw a season-high 44% of the targets (11) in his first game without Odell Beckham in Week 8, and since he’s still lining up in the slot about half the time, he may not see much of top corner Bradley Roby, so I like him to catch 6-7 balls this week. If he scores, it will be a go-off game for him.
DJ Moore (Car, vs. Buf - $5100 on DK) - He’s very far down the board on FanDuel, so I wouldn’t bother him there. He’s shaky right now no matter what, and he will crush you if current trends prevail. On the other hand, he looks sneaky at only $5100. Moore had season-highs in targets (13), catches (8), and receiving yards (120) the last time these teams met in Week 2, and he’s due.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
Michael Thomas (NO, vs. SF - $7400 on DK and $8500 on FanDuel) - He’s not a value on either site, but our projection for him is pretty conservative still since he’s yet to have a huge game and great showing. However, the 49ers’ slot corner K’Waun Williams is out, which should help Thomas at times, and it’s a tougher matchup than usual for Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook. So how about a little MT this week? He’s due for a huge game.
DJ Chark (Jax, vs. at GB - $6200 on DK and $6600 on FanDuel) - He isn’t a good value on DK, but on FanDuel he’s top-7. Chark was the clear beneficiary from the QB switch, since he saw 12 targets and he had a 53% air yards share on his way to 7/146/1 receiving. The word was the Jags would try to get the ball down the field with Jake Luton, and the rookie tossed Chark a 73-yard TD pass on his second professional attempt. Chark was looking at a tough assignment this week against Jaire Alexander, but Alexander’s been dealing with a concussion and he was listed as doubtful on Friday. If he’s out, it’s not chasing points to roll with Chark, especially with Laviska Shenault out.
Mike Evans (TB, vs. Car - $6300 on DK and $7300 on FanDuel) - He isn’t a good value on either site, and there are too many viable receivers here to feel good about him. But I did love him back in Week 2 and he went off in this matchup, and I always like him more against zone teams, which the Panthers are. Add in all the drama last week about not getting him the ball, and I like Evans’ chances.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
Emmanuel Sanders (NO, vs. SF - $4800 on DK and $5800 on FanDuel) - Sanders posted 4/38/1 receiving last week, but he ran only 14 routes, possibly because it was his first game back after a stay on the COVID-19 list. The 49ers are down their good slot corner K’Waun Williams, and Sanders still lines up in the slot more than a third of the time, so he’s a solid low-end option at his low price.
Chris Conley (Jax, vs. at GB - $3000 on DK) - I would not bother with Conley on FanDuel, since he’s not even a top-25 value. Conley actually caught 7-of-8 target from Jake Luton for 52 yards last week, and he needs only 9 PPR points to qualify as a win, so I’ll take a shot. Keelan Cole, though, did nothing last week, and Cole only does something when no one expects it (or at least he routinely craps the bed when we do expect something). But given the QB switch I have to go with the guy the new QB clicked with last week, and that’s Conley. Obviously, no Laviska Shenault helps.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
Allen Robinson (Chi, vs. Min - $7000 on DK and $6900 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-12 value on DK, but he’s the #1 value on FanDuel with a whacked out cost of $6900. The Vikings secondary is obviously vulnerable, giving up a ton of production out of the slot, and A-Rob lines up there about a quarter of the time. All totaled, they give up 14/178/2.3 per game to WRs, so A-Rob is looking good.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS (PRIMETIME)
Anthony Miller (Chi, vs. Min - $7000 on DK and $6900 on FanDuel) - He’s not a top-25 value on FanDuel, so I’d pass there, but he’s fourth-best value on DK, per our projections. He’s shown signs of life lately, posting 5/59 on 8 targets last week. The Bears cannot run the ball, so they need to take to the air, and the Vikings are giving up the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers, so he has a chance.
TIGHT ENDS
TJ Hockenson (Det, vs. Was - $5100 on DK and $6200 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-7 value on both sites and the #1 value on FanDuel. He popped up on the injury report with a toe issue on Thursday, but he did work Friday, so with TE so bad right now, I will list him. Our Greg Cosell likes the matchup for the TE against TFT, and Evan Engram posted 5/48/1 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup last week. No Kenny Golladay helps, and I do not like Danny Amendola this week (loved him last week), so Hock is looking great if healthy.
Evan Engram (NYG, vs. Phi - $4500 on DK and $5600 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-8 value on both sites. Engram is absolutely coming on now with 9+ targets and 5+ catches in each of his last three games, and he’s being utilized better down the field. He posted 6/46 receiving on nine targets against the Eagles in Week 7, but it should have been more as he dropped a potential game-winning pass that would have put him probably at 7/60+ The Eagles are giving up a healthy 12+ FP to TEs the last four weeks, and I think he can do a little more than 12.
Eric Ebron (Pit, vs. Was - $4400 on DK and $5400 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-11 value on both sites, but #3 value on FanDuel, so he’s better there. I still don’t totally trust him, but it’s not because of Ebron; they just have too many other weapons. Still, Ebron has 11+ FP in three straight games with 5.9 targets/game and the Steelers may not have Vance McDonald (COVID-19). The Bengals are allowing second-most FPG to TEs (17.7) on the season and a whopping 23.4 FPG to TEs their last four games.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
None of note.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
Jace Sternberger (GB, vs. SF - $2500 on DK) - He’s a way better value on DK, so this is DK only and ONLY if Robert Tonyan is inactive. If so, Sternberger may need to only make 1-2 plays and/or score to come through at this low salary. They will definitely give him chances if Tonyan is out.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
Jimmy Graham (Chi, vs. Min - $4100 on DK and $5600 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-6 value on both sites. Graham is coming on (again) lately, after posting 6/54/1 on 6 targets last week. The Vikings are giving up 5/65 per game to TEs the last four weeks, with 3 TDs, and they also allow the highest yards per target against TEs on the season, so Jimmy’s looking good on paper here. They can’t run the ball, so they will need him and Anthony Miller this week.
