Week 3 was a nice bounceback week after running bad in Weeks 1-2, but we can’t live in the past. We’re onto Cincinnati.
Week 4!
GAME PICKS
Lions at Bears
Bet – Lions +3 (-115, MGM)
Why? – After last week’s debacle, there is no way to trust the Bears right now. Chicago has a breach in their ship's hull, and even though the water is coming in the cracks slowly, you know the boat is going down and it’s not going to be pretty. Detroit is simply the better team right now. Just how broken is Chicago’s offense? Well, they have gained 3.3 yards per play through three games which is dead last in the league. The 31st ranked Dolphins are at 4.0! This line is down to the crucial 2.5 figure in some spots already. I might end up taking Lions ML, too.
Browns at Vikings
Bet – Browns -1.5 (-110, MGM)
Why? – The Browns have rolled over the same exact game-plan from last season in that they’re playing slow and running the hell out of the ball. Through three games, the Browns are the fourth-highest team in run rate over expectation (+5.1%) and lead all teams in run rate with a lead (63.7%). This is by no means groundbreaking, but I think we’re going to see HC Kevin Stefanski come out and hammer the Vikings front-seven with Nick Chubb like last week where Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 32 carries. Minnesota’s run defense has been gashed for 4.82 YPC (sixth-highest) for a 53% success rate (third-highest). The Browns are perfectly positioned to take advantage of the Vikings weak run defense and control this game.
Steelers at Packers
Bet – Packers -6.5 (-105, DK)
Why? – With Roethlisberger looking dusty, I think we see a Packers rout here. Green Bay’s offense is back on track after flopping in Week 1, meanwhile, we have a large sample that points to 1) the Steelers underwhelming and 2) the Packers crushing at home. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS and straight up in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Packers are 6-2-1 ATS and 9-0 straight up since the start of 2019 when they are at home and favored by 6 or more.
PLAYER PROPS
Kyle Pitts
Bet – Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115, MGM)
Why? – It’s been a slow start for Pitts this year, but the good news is that he’s playing a ton – he’s just not seeing targets. Pitts has run a route on 81.5% of the Falcons’ passing plays, which is the sixth-highest involvement rate among TEs. This is now Pitts’ easiest matchup of the season against a Washington secondary that is allowing a whopping 168 yards per game to slot receivers. And Pitts is basically just a big slot receiver. He’s lined up in the slot on 45% of his snaps this season.
Aaron Jones
Bet – Over 86.5 total yards (-115, MGM)
Why? – The Packers are massive home-favorites which is where Jones usually does his best work. Since 2019, the Packers have been favored by 6 or more at Lambeau nine times. And, in those games, Jones averages 129.4 scrimmage yards on 19 touches per game.
D’Andre Swift
Bet – Over 35.5 receiving yards (-125, FOXBet)
Why? – Just felt a bit low. Swift has cleared 41 receiving yards in every game so far with 11, 5, and 7 targets. Kareem Hunt had 74 receiving yards in this matchup last week.
Chuba Hubbard
Bet – Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110, DK)
Why? – Panthers are 4 or 5 point dogs depending on where you look and Hubbard will play almost all of the snaps in a negative game-script. After CMC went down last week, Hubbard played on 39 of 50 possible snaps while Royce Freeman got 11 snaps. More importantly, Hubbard was involved on 20-of-27 passing plays (74%) and got 5 targets
Robby Anderson
Bet – Longest reception over 20.5 yards (-110, MGM)
Why? – Anderson’s target share is miniscule, but he’s 4th among all WRs in aDOT (18.4) and draws the best matchup out of the Panthers WR trio.
Sam Darnold
Bet – Over 269.5 yards
Why? – Just correlating all of my Panthers overs. Darnold has 279, 305, 304 yards in his first three starts while Dallas has allowed 379 (Brady), 338 (Herbert), and 326 (Hurts).
Nick Chubb
Bet – Over 75.5 rushing yards (-120, FOXBet)
Why? – Looking to go 3-for-3 on Chubb over in three straight three weeks. This is by no means groundbreaking, but I think we’re going to see HC Kevin Stefanski come out and hammer the Vikings front-seven with Nick Chubb and try to control the game on the ground like last week where Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 32 carries. Minnesota’s run defense has been gashed for a 4.82 YPC (sixth-highest) for a 53% success rate (third-highest).
Jameis Winston
Bet – Under 205.5 passing yards (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – Has 20, 22, and 21 attempts and 148, 111, and 128 yards through three games. The Saints are 7-point favorites, so if they build a lead and their defense stops the Giants, we’ll see this passing game flop again.
Evan Engram
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (+162, FOXBet)
Why? – This was a juicy find. The Giants are going to be without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton this week, and in his return last week, Engram got 6 targets on just 56% of the snaps. I’m expecting 6-8 targets this week in a more full-time role.
James Washington
Bet – Over 26.5 receiving yards (-110, MGM)
Why? – Claypool is out. Last week, Washington got 5 targets on 80% of the snaps. Steelers should be trailing all game long.
Mark Andrews
Bet – Over 46.5 yards (-115, DK)
Why? – Running a route on 86% of Lamar’s dropbacks (third-highest involvement rate among TEs) and the Broncos defense have faced the league’s worst TEs so far.
Damien Harris
Bet – Under 56.5 total yards (-110, MGM)
Why? – Negative game-script, we’ll likely see Rhamondre Stevenson play a bit, and the Bucs’ have the best run defense in the league.
Kenyan Drake
Bet – Over 2.5 receptions (-105, DK)
Why? – Has seen 5, 6, and 6 targets through three games. Josh Jacobs returning doesn’t change Drake’s role.
Derek Carr
Bet – Over 24.5 completions (+105, FOXBet)
Why? - Has gone over 300 yards in seven-straight games dating back to last year for an average of 372.4 yards and 27.4 completions per game. Chargers are allowing a 70% completion rate.
Larry Rountree
Bet – Under 18.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? - Has played just 10 and 11 snaps in the past two games, turning his 6 touches into one yard.
