Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
TENTATIVE UPDATES SCHEDULE
Monday 10 am. — Initial spread/total wagers
Tuesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Wednesday 6:30 p.m. — TNF props
Friday 4:30 p.m. — Initial Sunday/Monday props
Sunday 10:30 a.m. — Final Sunday/Monday props
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 32-37 (47.8%, -9.10 units); W14: 3-2 (+.62)
Overall ATS Record: 108-97-2 (52.7%); W14: 6-7
Totals Record: 9-9 (50%, -.83 units); W14: 1-2 (-1.09 units)
BUFFALO BILLS (+3.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (L)
It looks like everyone is officially off of the Bills’ bandwagon this week after a loss to New England in a weird weather game on Monday Night Football. Now seems like the perfect time to jump in with the Bills while they’re being devalued, and I’d have this line more in the 2.5-to-3 point range. This week’s matchup sets up much better for Buffalo than previous ones against the Colts and Patriots did. The Bills have a struggling rushing attack and no one runs on the Buccaneers anyway, so they shouldn’t be bashful with Josh Allen attacking the Buccaneers through the air. Tampa also prefers to attack opposing defenses with Tom Brady and the passing game, which is the strength of Buffalo’s defense, even with top CB Tre’Davious White out of the mix. I love getting the hook with the Bills here in a game that could be decided by a field goal. Risk one unit at -105 to win .95 units. (Posted 12/12)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (+3, DRAFTKINGS) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (W)
This line just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. The line has stretched out all the way to a full field goal because the Browns have been able to focus on the Ravens for three consecutive weeks. The Ravens are also coming off a loss to the Steelers last week, but this game is probably sitting in the pick-em range if Baltimore converts a wide-open two-point conversion at the end of Week 13 for the victory. I’d rather bet on a pissed-off team coming off a close loss anyway so give me the three points.
The Ravens beat the Browns 16-10 as three-point home favorites in Week 12, and this line has moved six points for a change of venues. Sportsbooks haven’t been dealing out three-point homefield advantages this season so they’re telling us these teams are 2-3 points closer than they were in Week 12 when Baltimore covered the spread. They gave out bad lines last week with the Ravens favored by four points in Pittsburgh, but you can’t tell me the Browns are seven points better than the Steelers like this week’s line is saying — the Steelers beat the Browns 15-10 in Week 8. The Marlon Humphrey injury is a major blow to the Ravens secondary, but it shouldn’t crush them this week against an impotent Browns’ WR corps. This line is an overcorrection against the Ravens so I’ll take the +3 with Baltimore. Risk one unit at -120 to win .83 units. (Posted 12/9)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8.5, FANDUEL) VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (W)
We just saw this matchup in Week 10 when the Chiefs laid waste to the Raiders 41-14 as 2.5-point road underdogs on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City is the hottest team in the AFC with five straight outright victories and three consecutive covers, and they’re doing it with a recent defensive surge, allowing just 11.2 points per game over their five-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 1-4 outright and ATS over the last five weeks, and they’ve scored 16 or fewer points in each of those losses. The Raiders lost Kenyan Drake (ankle) for the season in Week 14 and they’re expected to be without Darren Waller (knee) for another game or two. This line is on the move to -10 at most sportsbooks on Monday morning so don’t wait if you want to get the Chiefs laying single-digit points this week. Risk one unit at -114 to win .88 units. (Posted 12/6)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+1.5, BETMGM) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (W)
Joe Burrow dislocated his pinky on his throwing hand and he played through pain in Week 13. He already said he won’t miss any games because of the injury, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be quite as effective moving forward as we’ve seen Russell Wilson struggle through a throwing finger injury. Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off a disappointing 30-23 loss to the Seahawks in Week 13, but they dominated the action by averaging 6.5 yards per play. They also held the Seahawks to just 3.8 yards per play if you toss out Travis Homer’s fluky 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt. The 49ers could get WR Deebo Samuel (groin) and LB Fred Warner (hamstring) back this week, and they’re two of the most important pieces for the 49ers. I won’t be shocked if the 49ers close as short road favorites by the time Sunday rolls around so I’m grabbing the points with San Francisco early in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/6)
DETROIT LIONS (+8, FANDUEL) AT DENVER BRONCOS (L)
I was prepared to potentially lay the points with the Broncos in this matchup to fade the Lions off of their first victory since I thought this line would open in the six-point range. I was stunned to see this line sitting well over a touchdown on Monday morning so I’m grabbing the extra value with the Lions now since this line should close in the seven-point range. Detroit has won just one game this season, but they have been best friends for bettors with an 8-4 ATS record thanks to a run of four straight covers. Three of those covers have come against the Steelers, Browns, and Bears, whom I would classify with the Broncos in terms of similar offensive ineptitude. I like backing Teddy Bridgewater when he’s an underdog but not when he’s asked to win by more than a touchdown. The Lions’ passing attack has been frisky since they added Josh Reynolds to the mix, and the weather in Denver looks spectacular for this Sunday so we don’t have to worry about Jared Goff’s small hands in the elements this week. The Lions have just one win in 12 tries but I’m banking on them playing their eighth one-score game in their 13th game this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/6)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5, DRAFTKINGS) VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
I’ve been a little slow to give the Cardinals respect this season but this line sitting under a field goal is a bit disrespectful to the second-best ATS team in the league. The Cardinals moved to 9-3 ATS with a 33-22 victory over the Bears as 7.5-point road underdogs, and one of their previous ATS and outright victories came in early October when they beat the Rams 37-20 as three-point road underdogs. The Rams are coming off their most complete performance in more than a month by beating down the inferior Jaguars by 30 points, but they dropped five straight games ATS before that. They also lost three straight games outright in step-up spots against the Titans, 49ers, and Packers in Weeks 10-12 despite being favored in all three contests. The Rams continue to be a bit overvalued every week and this line should be more in the 3-4 point range so I’m grabbing the Cardinals laying less than a field goal. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/6)
NEW YORK GIANTS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (UNDER 45.5, DRAFTKINGS) (L)
The Giants already had one of the league’s worst scoring offenses before injuries ravaged the unit, and they could now be down to Jake Fromm at quarterback with Daniel Jones (neck) and Mike Glennon (concussion) looking unlikely to play this week. New York hasn’t scored more than 17 points in five straight games and their defense is giving up just 16.0 points per game over their last six games — they haven’t played over a total in seven straight contests. The Chargers have a much more important matchup with the Chiefs looming on Thursday night in Week 15, which will go a long way to deciding the AFC West title. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Chargers slow down the pace and pull players if they build a significant lead in the second half of this contest. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/6)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (UNDER 43.5, FANDUEL) (L)
The Seahawks broke their nine-game under streak in a 30-23 victory over the 49ers last week, but it was hardly an offensive explosion. They averaged just 3.8 yards per play against the 49ers if you toss out Travis Homer’s 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt. Russell Wilson still averaged just 6.2 YPA so he’s hardly back to being the old Russ. Meanwhile, the Texans have played under the total in eight of their last 10 games and in four straight contests overall. Houston’s offense has hit the skids even with Tyrod Taylor back in the lineup, averaging just 11.3 points per game in four games since he returned to the lineup. The Texans averaged just 2.8 yards per play in their shutout loss to the Colts in Week 13, and Taylor played so poorly that he got pulled for Davis Mills in the late third quarter. These two offenses have the potential to set back offensive football a couple of decades. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/6)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (UNDER 44.5, FANDUEL) (W)
The Jaguars’ offense has been in miserable shape since they came out of their Week 7 bye, averaging just 10.7 points per game. They’ve now played under the total in seven straight games and they’re 2-10 toward unders overall this season. First overall pick Trevor Lawrence has been downright miserable over the last six games, averaging 5.0 YPA with just two touchdowns. The Titans’ offense hasn’t been much better since Derrick Henry left the lineup, averaging 19.3 points per game with just 26 points in their last two games. Tennessee did get its running game on track before their Week 13 bye after they cut Adrian Peterson out of the mix, and they should play a slug-it-out brand of offense this week with A.J. Brown still on the injured reserve. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 12/6)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 135-122 (52.5%, +-.66 units); W14: 12-9 (+2.12 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Chase Claypool (Pit) under 3.5 receptions (+120, DraftKings) (L)
- Toe injury flared up and down to 63% of the snaps last week, 3 or fewer catches in 6-of-10 games, team-high aDOT (13.3 yards)
K.J. Osborn (Min) over 41.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Highest snap share (92%) with Thielen leaving early last week, has reached 47+ yards in 4-of-5 games with 6+ targets, no Haden and Pittsburgh giving up 12.9 YPR to WRs
Sunday
Devonta Freeman (Bal) over 12.5 rushing attempts (+105, Caesars) (W)
- 58% snap share and 13+ carries in four of last five games, including 16 attempts against Cleveland in Week 12, could rein in Lamar a bit with recent results
Mark Andrews (Bal) over 50.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 4/65 receiving on 10 target against Cleveland two weeks ago, 50+ yards in 9-of-12 games
Baker Mayfield (Cle) over 29.5 passing attempts (-125, Caesars) (W)
- Attempted 37 passes in this matchup two weeks ago, Ravens facing second-high pass rate (64.5%) and just lost Humphrey
Cam Newton (Car) anytime touchdown (+130, FanDuel) (W)
- CMC out of the picture at the goal line, 15 rushing TDs in 18 games since 2020
Cam Newton (Car) under 191.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- FP projection: 160 yards, averaging 172.8 passing yards/game and 7.0 YPA in 17 starts over the last 2 seasons, Rhule fired OC Brady to run the ball more
Chuba Hubbard (Car) over 14.5 rushing attempts (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- OC Brady fired for not going run-heavy enough, averaged 17.8 carries/game as a starter in Weeks 3-8, Falcons facing 8th-most RB rushing attempts (23.3)
Zach Wilson (NYJ) under 233.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- 226 or fewer yards in 5 of his last 6 full games, no Davis and Moore (quad) very questionable and could be limited if he plays, Saints averaging allowing 214.5 passing yards/game over last 4
Davis Mills (Hou) under 222.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel) (L)
- Texans averaging 117.3 passing yards per game over the last four weeks, Mills averaged 3.5 YPA in the second half last week
Tom Brady (TB) under 308.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 250 yards, Buffalo facing third-fewest pass attempts/game (30.9) and eighth-highest rush rate (44.8%), no QB has reached 275+ yards against
Josh Allen (Buf) over 38.5 passing attempts (+100, Caesars) (W)
- Tampa facing a league-high 39.8 passes/game, potential negative gamescript as 3.5-point underdogs
Byron Pringle (KC) over 24.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Season-high 72% snap share last week, 37+ yards in 4 of last 6 games, including 4/46/1 receiving against the Raiders in Week 10
DeSean Jackson (LV) over 20.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 40 yards, over a 40% snap share in the last two games, 38-yard catch against the Chiefs in Week 10, projects to be a pass-heavy script
Noah Fant (Den) under 16.5 yards longest reception (-110, Caesars) (L)
- 15 or fewer yards for longest reception in 9-of-11 games, pathetic aDOT of 6.2 yards, potential run-heavy script as 10-point home favorites.
Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (-115, DraftKings) (W)
- Bills shouldn’t have much success running it and has the best matchup in the slot against Murphy-Bunting, Gage had 11 receptions last week
Joe Mixon (Cin) under 76.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars) (W)
- Missed practice all week with an illness so he his workload could be reduced, 49ers are giving up 83.3 rushing yards per game to RBs
Joe Mixon (Cin) under 18.5 rushing attempts (-115, BetMGM) (W)
- Three DNPs with an illness this week so could see a reduced role, short underdogs so may have to throw little more, 49ers facing 21.1 RB rushing attempts per game
Sunday Night
Darnell Mooney (Chi) over 45.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 66 yards, A-Rob back but Mooney has 5+ catches in 4 of last 5 games with 46 targets in that span, pass-heavy script as 12.5-point road underdogs
A.J. Dillon (GB) over 12.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- FP projection: 21 yards, 21+ yards in four straight games, GB has has given up 16+ receiving yards to an individual RB in five straight games
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) over 19.5 yards longest reception (-102, FanDuel) (L)
- 28+ yards in 4 of last 5 games, aDOT for the season sitting above 19.5 yards (20.1), 19 targets the last 2 games, Bears giving up 14.0 YPR to WRs,
Monday Night
Matthew Stafford (LAR) under 283.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Cards have given up 284+ yards once in 12 games, Stafford needed major garbage time to get 280 yards in their first meeting, Rams went with bigger personnel with Michel in and WR depth issues last week
DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) over 58.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars)
- 4/67 receiving in this matchup in Week 4, back to full health after pacing the Cards in snap share (74%) and routes (17) last week
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 0-1
Overall: 37-28 (56.9%)
Week 14
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (L)
Las Vegas Raiders at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5) (W)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5.5) at New York Jets (W)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (W)
BUFFALO BILLS (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (L)
