Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 15-18 (45.4%, -4.40 units); W6: 3-3 (-.27 units)
Overall ATS Record: 46-47-2 (49.5%); W7: 0-1
Totals Record: 4-2 (66.7%, +1.64 units); W6: 1-0 (+.91 units)
CHICAGO BEARS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (UNDER 48.5, FANDUEL)
I bet the Bears and Packers under the total last week and it was a fairly easy winner, and I’m heading back to the well this week with another Bears’ under. They’ve been a dead-nuts under team all season with a 1-5 mark toward unders, just squeezing over the total by two points in the season opener thanks to the Rams scoring 34 points. The Bears have gone under the total by an average of two scores (9.2 points) in their five games that went under the total this season. The Bears beat the Buccaneers 20-19 in a Thursday night affair last season in a game totaled at 44 points, and I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair. Tampa’s defense has tightened up a bit even with its injuries in the secondary, allowing just 18.7 points and 269.3 yards per game over the last three weeks. The Buccaneers’ secondary is exploitable for most offenses, but Justin Fields isn’t ready to take advantage of it to turn this game into a shootout. This line should continue to fall so I’m jumping on it at 48.5 points early in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/18)
ATLANTA FALCONS (+1, BETMGM) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
Atlanta is coming off a bye week after playing in London in Week 5 while Miami is the only team out of the four that played across the pond that elected to play the following week. The Dolphins are likely regretting that decision with their injuries mounting in the secondary and in their receiving corps. The Dolphins are a sinking ship after the Jaguars snapped their 20-game losing skid — the NFL’s third-longest losing streak of all-time — against them last week. Miami has dropped three straight games ATS with an average cover margin of -11.7 points. The Falcons should be fresh coming off of their bye last week, and they finally unlocked rookie TE Kyle Pitts the last time we saw them against the Jets. The Falcons will close as short favorites in this one so I’m grabbing the extra value early in the week, and I’m still fine betting the Falcons as under-field-goal favorites. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/18)
NEW YORK JETS (+7, FANDUEL) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying touchdown spreads to any team in the league, including the Jets. They squeezed out a 25-22 victory over the Texans in Week 5 as eight-point road favorites, and they’re now 1-3 ATS in four games as a favorite this year. The lone cover came in a 25-6 victory over the Jets in Week 2 as 5.5-point road favorites when Zach Wilson threw four interceptions. New England’s defense is a bit banged up coming out of their Week 6 overtime loss to the Cowboys with DB Jonathan Jones (ribs), DT Christian Barmore (shoulder), LB Chase Winovich (hamstring), and LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (ribs) each leaving early with injuries. The Jets hopefully spent the bye week figuring out how to get their offense going early in games. New York has scored just one offensive touchdown in the first half of their first five games, and they have more first downs in overtime (2) than they do in the first quarter (1). I’ll take a full touchdown betting that the Jets’ offense will look sharper this time around against a banged-up Patriots’ defense in what should be a tight, low-scoring affair. Risk one unit at -112 to win .89 units. (Posted 10/18)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+4.5, FANDUEL) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
I am betting against one team coming out of their bye week in the 49ers, but this is more of a bet on a Colts’ squad that’s moving in the right direction after a tough start to the season. Indianapolis has covered the spread in four of its last five games, including in three straight games with an average cover margin of 10.2 points after their 31-3 victory over the Texans as 11.5-point home favorites. Carson Wentz is playing his best football in quite some time as he’s thrown two TD passes in each of the last three weeks while averaging 9.8 YPA. San Francisco has been one of the worst teams to bet on this season with a 1-4 ATS record, which includes three straight ATS losses. The 49ers will also be trying to figure out their quarterback situation this week with Jimmy Garoppolo potentially returning from a calf injury, and we already know that difference-making TE George Kittle (IR) won’t be in the lineup. This line could potentially settle into the 3-3.5 point range later this week so I’m taking a little bit of extra value early in the week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 10/18)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 60-46 (56.6%, +8.41 units); W7: 1-0 (+.88 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Teddy Bridgewater (Den) under 229.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- Quad/foot injuries, plummeting total, rain and sustained winds in the 20-25 mph range will make this a short-passing/run-heavy gameplan
Sunday
Aaron Jones (GB) over 23.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- FP projection: 38 yards, WFT has allowed four straight RBs to reach 27+ receiving yards
Rashod Bateman (Bal) over 32.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Led the Ravens in targets in his first NFL game and heavier passing script coming this week, no Watkins again
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 18.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)
- 26+ rushing yards in four straight games, Allen (9/26 rushing) and Lawrence (7/28/1) were active runners against the Titans in the last two weeks
Mac Jones (NE) under 248.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 186 yards in this matchup in Week 2, gamescript could be more run-heavy as seven-point home favorites
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) under 50.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Averaging 7.7 YPR through two games, Jets could work Moore and Mims into the mix more coming out of their bye
Calvin Ridley (Atl) over 73.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Season-best 80 yards last time out with aDOT rising from 9.0 yards to 15.1, double-digit targets in each of the last three games, Dolphins have allowed 100+ yards to three straight perimeter WRs
DeSean Jackson (LAR) over 15.5 yards longest reception (-110, DraftKings)
- Lions’ secondary has been ripped for big plays all season, giving up 16.3 YPR, banking on McVay/Stafford to give D-Jax a couple of opportunities for big plays
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 39.5 yards longest completion (-113, FanDuel)
- Rams lead the league with 7 completions of 40+ yards and Lions giving up the third-most (6), Rams leading the league in yards per completion (12.8) and Lions giving up a league-high (13.5)
Derek Carr (LV) under 288.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Eagles have been a fun-funnel defense, allowing just 6.4 YPA and 223.8 passing yards per game
Hunter Renfrow (LV) under 22.5 yards longest reception (-120, BetMGM)
- Eagles’ defense built on limiting big plays and Renfrow isn’t a big-play receiver, Philly allowing just 11.9 YPR.
Justin Fields (Chi) over 18.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Dropbacked a season-high 37 times and it produced five scrambles for 43 yards, expecting a pass-heavy script against a pass-funnel defense as 12-point road underdogs, which will put the rock in his hands plenty this week
Tyler Johnson (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
- AB, Scotty, and Gronk out this week, Johnson has seen a 30% snap share or better twice this season and he’s topped 42+ yards in both games
James Conner (Ari) over 13.5 rushing attempts (-110, BetMGM)
- Cardinals lined as 17-point favorites, 16+ carries in last two games decided by multiple scores, Cards protecting Edmonds right now with his shoulder injury
Sunday Night
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 60.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Colts have given up big games to Cooks (9/89 receiving) and Brown (9/125/2) the last two weeks, wet conditions expected but 49ers will get the rock in his hands anyway they can with limited playmakers
Monday Night
Jameis Winston (NO) over 1.5 touchdown passes (+135, DraftKings)
- 2+ TDs in 3-of-5 games, Seattle giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game (306.2), Tre’Quan back in the mix
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 16-14 (53.3%)
Week 7
I hate this board and there’s just 13 games so I’m taking my mandatory week off. I’ll be back at it next week.
