GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 0-4
Overall ATS Record: 0-4
Totals Record: 2-0
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+1) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I can’t believe the Rams are actually getting a point here. Carson Wentz did not look great last week, and we’re already back to relying on individual plays, which will be hard for Wentz against a top defense with his OL issues. His top-two WRs are also banged up and they’re down their best corner in Xavier Rhodes.
BUFFALO BILLS (-3) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
Tua Tagovailoa was not very good last week, and he will not have Will Fuller, plus the Bills rarely give up big plays. I think Josh Allen, who crushed this defense last year, will be ready for the adjustments Miami will likely make, which entails going more zone. I don’t think Allen and the Bills can play two bad games in a row at this point.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4.5) AT NEW YORK JETS
I’ll take the Pats against a rookie QB with protection issues all day long. Mac Jones should also move the ball effectively in his good matchup. We’re also probably looking at 1-2 huge defensive plays by the Pats.
DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Teddy Bridgewater looked great last week, and he has plenty of weapons, plus two good RBs, to consistently move the ball and put the Jaguars away. It looks like DE Bradley Chubb will play for Denver.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (OVER 45.5)
We like this matchup for the Eagle passing game, and Deebo Samuel and George Kittle will give the Eagles all they can handle, so this should be close, leaning toward high-scoring.
Player Props
Player Props Record: 10-10
Welp, off to a rough start despite good analysis. Kenny Golladay missed his prop by 14 yards despite getting a healthy 8 targets in a game with 61 points being scored, 29 of them by his Giants. The analysis was that Daniel Jones would play well enough to get Golladay to 52 yards, and Jones did. But he also prevented this pick from winning by holding onto the ball too long on 2-3 different plays where Golladay was open and the primary read.
And then Antonio Gibson somehow failed to hit even 19 receiving yards despite his QB throwing 46 times and for 336 yards.
Give me a break.
Over at Paul Kelly’s props article here on the site, he went 7-3, using discrepancies from MY projections, which both infuriates me and makes me kinda proud.
Anyways, I’ve been working with Paul on my picks for years, and he’s become really good at finding the best discrepancies; so we’ll use most of them from his Week 2 article.
- Javonte Williams (Jax) OVER 35.5 rushing yards (-115 DK) - I mean, I personally projected him for 70 yards soooooo….yeahh.
- DeVonta Smith (Phi) OVER 49.5 yards (-111, BetMGM) - One of my favorite bets of the week.
- Nick Chubb (Cle) OVER 83.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) - Mortal lock if he doesn't get hurt.
- Keenan Allen (LAC) OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) - He should absolutely crush them and Dallas can make the Chargers stay with the pass by putting up points themselves.
- Jalen Hurts (Phi) OVER 31.5 pass attempts (-110, BetMGM) - We think the passing game will be just fine for the Birds this week.
- Tyreek Hill (KC) OVER 89.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) - Ravens have some injuries on defense and are down a top corner in Marcus Peters.
- DeVonta Smith (Phi) OVER 3.5 receptions (-161, BetMGM) - Bad odds, but a great bet.
- TJ Hockenson (Det) OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM) - This seems too good to be true, but the matchup and gameflow make this one damn near a lock.
- TJ Hockenson (Det) OVER 4.5 receptions (-135 DK) - Not the best odds, but again, they’re throwing it 40+ times and TJH is their guy. Tyrell Williams is also out.
- Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-110 DK) - Bears secondary is quite bad already this year.
- Tyler Higbee (LAC) OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-119 BetMGM) - The Colts gave up TE production last week and Higbee’s usage last week was excellent.
- Jonathan Taylor (LAC) OVER 15.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) - This seems too good to be true, since he had 7 targets and 6/60 last week. But I think they need their RBs in the passing game again this week.
- James Conner (Ari) OVER 8.5 rushing attempts (-110 DK) - This one’s a little weird, but he looked good last week and the Viking run D looked horrible and was run on 32 times by RBs.
- Hunter Renfro (LV) OVER 3.5 receptions (-145 DK) - Steelers gave up 8/60 receiving on 13 targets to Cole Beasley last week, and they should contain Darren Waller, so Waller won’t get like every target.
- AJ Dillon (GB) OVER 3.5 receptions (-110 DK) - He’s got to hit this. Hell, he wasn’t that far off winning two props here last week in a catastrophic game.
- Darnell Mooney (Chi) OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) - Andy Dalton missed him for a potential TD last week, but if Dalton stinks, it’ll be Justin Fields. Mooney can honestly hit this on one catch.
- Jalen Waddle (Mia) OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) - No Will Fuller, and he’s already clicking with Tua.
